|
 |
Energy at stake
The problem with alternative energy sources
Faced with the severe restriction that will be imposed by falling oil production, it is tempting to want to fall back on the two other fossil fuels, natural gas and coal, which are the most economically accessible fuels after oil. But what is true for oil is also true for gas and coal: with a given amount to start with, extraction will reach a peak and start to decline. According to the CEO of Shell and experts at the Institut Français du Pétrole, gas production will peak shortly after oil production (roughly in 2020-2025). As for coal, even though this resource is often said to be abundant, it will not suffice to meet growing needs on present trends for more than 30 to 40 years, even assuming that climate concerns are set aside.
|
 |
|
Another variable is often invoked, i.e. technological progress, but this trend is not, in fact, self-perpetuating. Experience shows that progress in technical objects alone does not result in an overall drop in consumption. In fact, as long as the real price of energy is falling (the long-term trend over the last two centuries) progress makes energy-consuming devices and uses available to more and more people, and consumption rises faster than the saving per device (often the only figure put forward). Recent history provides a wonderful illustration of this “rebound effect”: refrigerators, clothes washers, cars and airplanes have never been so energy-efficient… and our overall consumption has never been higher!
|
As if that were not enough, the orders of magnitude of available figures show that it is an illusion to count on renewable energy (or nuclear power) to avoid the “energy crisis” in the coming 20 to 30 years, during which we will experience repeated recessions through lack of fuel to feed perpetual growth in production.
|
Before becoming operational at the necessary scale, these alternatives to fossil fuels will play no more than an accessory role in the next 20 years.We cannot count on these resources to ensure a “smooth” transition that would allow us to avoid rethinking our use of fossil fuels.
And it must not be forgotten that problems will arise well before these alternatives are available. The first manifestations of these deep-seated difficulties have been tangible for several years now: tension on the oil market, geopolitical conflicts over natural gas, increasing use of coal. The recession that began in 2008, after six years of sharp increases in energy prices, triggering today’s financial crisis, is perhaps the first sign of what awaits us in the future: chronic and recurring crises if the energy system continues to be deeply dependent on hydrocarbon fuels.
|
|
 |
|
|
Se connecter