2019: The Year Global Emissions Leveled Off?

By César Dugast – Senior Consultant – Carbone 4 In an article ^[1] In a report published on February 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that global energy-related CO2 emissions had leveled off in 2019—a first in two years. How should we interpret this figure, and to what extent should we be pleased by it?

A Closer Look at Energy-Related Emissions: Lessons from the IEA Report

Current levels of fossil CO2 emissions are estimated to be around 33 billion metric tons of CO2 (GtCO2) per year, following two years of continuous increases. To explain why this increase has stopped, the IEA cites the significant decline in emissions observed in the electricity generation in developed countries, which they say is a direct result of the expansion of intermittent renewable energy sources (wind and solar photovoltaic), the shift from coal to natural gas (which emits half as much carbon), and increased nuclear power generation.

Source: IEA ^[1]

It is interesting to note that the European Union, with a decrease of -160 MtCO2 (-5%) compared to 2018, is the largest contributor to this lack of growth in global emissions in terms of absolute reduction. Three-quarters of this reduction occurred in the energy sector, thanks to the growth of renewable energy and the decline in coal-fired electricity generation (-25%) in favor of natural gas (+11% in generation over the same period). Germany led this decline (-8%), reaching a level of emissions not seen since 1950. Renewables, and in particular wind power (+11% growth in electricity generation), gained market share at the expense of coal (-25% in electricity generation). Renewables now account for 40% of Germany’s electricity mix; for the first time in the country’s history, they have surpassed coal in terms of the volume of electricity generated. Another significant contributor to the decline in European Union emissions, the United Kingdom continued the rapid decarbonization of its electricity system, reducing coal-fired electricity generation to just 2% of total production. The rapid expansion of offshore wind power in the North Sea was the main driver of this decline. The United States is the country with the most significant absolute reduction in the world (-140 MtCO₂, representing a 2.9% drop in emissions), driven primarily by the shift from coal to natural gas in electricity generation. This shift is largely due to a sharp decline in the cost of natural gas compared to 2018 (-45%). Today, electricity generation from natural gas accounts for 37% of the national electricity mix, which is an all-time high. The United States has reduced its CO₂ emissions by 1 gigatonne compared to the 2000s; no other country in the world has recorded such an absolute decline over this period.

Energy-related CO2 emissions: What are we talking about?

To interpret this figure correctly, it is important to understand that it does not accounts for only a portion of total human-caused CO2 emissions, and that CO2 itself is only part of the global climate problem. Energy-related CO2 emissions ((energy-related CO2 emissions) cover all emissions caused by the fossil fuel combustion (coal, oil, gas). However, there are two other sources of CO2 emissions:

• emissions associated with certain industrial processes, which produce CO2 not through combustion, but through a chemical oxidation reaction (e.g., steel and cement production)
• emissions related to land-use change and deforestation, which emit non-fossil CO2 by transferring biogenic carbon from one reservoir (biomass) to another (the atmosphere).

Source: Key Climate Figures, CGDD, 2019 *FFI : Fossil fuels and industry **LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry ***GHG: greenhouse gases

  Energy-related CO2 emissions account for 59% of global CO2-equivalent emissions. Total CO2 emissions—which also include industrial processes and emissions from the land sector—account for 76% of global GHG emissions. Thus, while the fact that fossil fuel CO2 emissions have not increased is an encouraging sign, it is not enough to take an optimistic view of the evolving climate situation. Given the massive wildfires observed last year and the acceleration of deforestation, it is not impossible that emissions from the land sector surged last year. ^[3] ; as for other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), they still account for a good quarter of the climate problem and show no signs of slowing down—far from it ^[4]. And that's not even counting the recent discovery ^[5] a chronic underestimation (-25% to -40%) of methane emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels…