GHG Emissions in France: A Decline in 2018, but an Unsatisfactory Situation in the Transportation Sector

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By Aurélien Schuller – Manager

CITEPA, a leading organization in the field of greenhouse gas inventories, recently published [1] a Estimated French emissions in 2018. They are estimated to have fallen by 4% between 2017 and 2018, representing a decrease of ~20 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e). It is worth noting that the decrease in volume is concentrated primarily in:

• the energy sector, with a reduction of nearly 8 MtCO2e in electricity generation alone,
• and in the building sector, with a reduction of 6 MtCO2e.

These declines are partly due to the fact that the winter of 2018 was milder than that of 2017.

What should we make of the overall annual reduction rate of 4% across all sectors? Taken at face value, this rate is slightly below the reduction trajectory required to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, which calls for a reduction of ~5% per year to be maintained over the next three decades. But above all, while the decline in 2018 can be attributed in part to the milder winter, as noted by CITEPA, it is the rate of reduction under more “normal” weather conditions that we need to assess. This would unfortunately move us even further away from the 5% target.

For the transportation sector More specifically, data is available for the various modes [2]: Overall, the sector is seeing its emissions to decline modestly, with a reduction of 2 MtCO2e, or 1.6%. But this decline masks some disparities by mode of transportation. Specifically, we observe:

• a reduction of 2 MtCO2e for cars,
• a reduction of 1 MtCO2e for passenger cars,
• but a an increase of nearly 1 MtCO2e for heavy-duty vehicles.

For the other modes, the changes in volume between 2017 and 2018 were relatively small, but it is worth noting, for example, that the Domestic air travel increased by 2.6% over the period.

Overall, for the sector, the decline is good news, but it is still insufficient, especially since it follows two years of growth and a period of stagnation since 2008. In June, the High Council for Climate published an assessment of France’s progress toward carbon neutrality [3]. Transportation is singled out as the a sector that is significantly behind schedule compared to the trajectory set out in France's climate roadmap. It’s worth noting, by the way, that transportation is the only sector in France that hasn’t reduced its emissions since 1990… Thus, the Announcements were quick to follow in response to the delay in the transition: an eco-tax on flights departing from France, a reduction in the partial reimbursement for diesel fuel used in road transport [4], and a requirement for a minimum share of so-called “low-emission” vehicles in corporate fleets [5] (with more than 100 light-duty vehicles)… To say the least, these projects are far from making everyone happy! So let’s bet that the political agenda this fall—particularly in connection with the budget bill—will be very busy with issues related to the energy transition in mobility. Article written by Aurélien Schuller – Manager

Sources: [1] Energy Literacy [2] CITEPA, see the file in "Climate Plan" format and covering the Kyoto scope [3] High Council for Climate [4] Environmental Journal [5] Vehicle Fleets