Internal-combustion cars: The end is drawing nearer in the United Kingdom

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By Nicolas Meunier (Consultant) and Samuel Blasco (Intern)

Awareness of the climate emergency is growing in the United Kingdom: In February, the British government announced its intention to ban the sale of all new diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035 [1]. This announcement is in line with the UK’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and with COP 26, which will take place in Glasgow this coming November. It reinforces the commitment made in 2017 [2], by moving up the ban from 2040 to 2035, and also by expanding the scope of the measure. In fact, The measure will now apply to passenger cars and light commercial vehicles powered by diesel or gasoline, as well as hybrid vehicles, whether they are so-called conventional hybrids (which run primarily on their internal combustion engine—the electric motor charges only while the vehicle is moving and provides only 1 to 2 km of actual electric range) or “plug-in” (i.e., rechargeable by plugging into an electrical outlet, with an electric range of 40 to 80 km before the internal combustion engine takes over). That would leave only 100% electric or hydrogen-powered modelsFor sale: light vehicles, as heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses are not affected. Transport accounts for 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom, with light-duty vehicles responsible for 70% of that total, or 20% nationwide. The stakes are therefore high. [4][5][6]

However, is it realistic to expect 100% electric vehicles (battery-powered or hydrogen-powered) by 2050? Despite the fact that the United Kingdom is Europe’s second-largest buyer of electric vehicles, 100% electric vehicles accounted for only 1.6% of cars sold in the country in 2019. [7] However, their sales are growing at an impressive rate. The issue of energy supply must also be taken into account. Some estimates predict a 25% increase in the amount of electricity needed as the vehicle fleet becomes electrified, which will have to be supplied by low-carbon energy sources for this to make sense from a climate perspective. In addition, numerous charging stations must be installed throughout the country. And while an estimated 25 million charging stations are needed, only 11,000 sites are currently equipped. (NOTE: The optimal size of the refueling network is a topic that has not yet been well documented. It is clear that a ratio of one public refueling station to one vehicle is significantly oversized, especially if hydrogen becomes more widespread.)Finally, we will need to win over the British automotive industry. With 2.72 million vehicles produced in 2018 (the fourth-largest production volume in Europe), 95 billion euros in revenue, and 856,000 people employed in the sector, the automotive industry is a major player in the United Kingdom [8]. However, Industry leaders are questioning the feasibility of such a ban, which they already considered challenging for 2040, and hope that this increase in climate ambition will be accompanied by a similar increase in public investment in their industry. However, the United Kingdom is not an isolated case in Europe, nor is it the most ambitious. While this new announcement allows it to gain a head start over France—and while many European countries have not set a deadline for the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, such as Italy, Spain, or even Germany (under discussion)—other countries are more committed (see chart below). [3] In this context, it is understandable why the British Secretary of State for Transport wants to push the deadline for the ban forward once again to 2032.

In conclusion, While this initiative by the United Kingdom is certainly commendable—provided it goes beyond a mere announcement—it is nevertheless important to remember that decarbonizing the automotive sector will not be achieved through technology alone. The use of more compact, fuel-efficient vehicles (typically avoiding SUVs), better sharing of these vehicles, and the use of other modes of transportation for various purposes (trains, buses, bicycles, and other active modes) are other essential measures that must be implemented to achieve low-carbon mobility.

[1] BBC News [2] BBC News [3] EcoCO2 [4] Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy [5] Department of Transportation [6] Department of Transportation [7] energypost.eu [8] CNBC [9] SMMT