A Call for a “Powerful Europe” Free from Fossil Fuels and in Control of Its Own Destiny

Executive Summary

To take control of its own destiny, shouldn't Europe develop a model of global power that is free from fossil fuels?

Humanity has reached the physical limits of its expansion on Earth.

Six of the nine planetary boundaries have already been crossed, and a seventh is on the verge of being crossed[1]. However, adhering to these physical limits is a prerequisite sine qua non the survival of humanity and a significant portion of life on Earth.

Climate change is one such limit. Whether we choose to curb climate change or let it run its course, both options will have a fundamental impact on human activities.

At the heart of this issue are fossil fuels.

Their increasing extraction and combustion since 1850—clearly visible in the graph below—have been the foundation of the extraordinary socioeconomic progress of the past two centuries. But at the same time, they have led to an ever-increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere and, consequently, to climate change, a causal link that has been scientifically established.[2].

If we continue on this path, we are dooming our existence on this planet.

Breaking out of this impasse requires limiting climate change to the maximum threshold of +2°C set by the Paris Agreement and, therefore, significantly accelerating the pace of emissions reductions. This represents an unprecedented challenge for humanity—one that will have far-reaching consequences for human societies and international relations.

In fact, since the end of World War II, there has been a form of peace among the major powers—or at the very least, an absence of direct conflict[3]. This can be explained by various factors, foremost among which are the abundance of energy made possible by fossil fuels, the possession of the atomic bomb by certain major powers, as well as the establishment of a system governing international relations, comprising nation-states, international institutions (such as the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO), NGOs, multinational corporations, etc.

Thus, for the past 80 years, playing one’s part in the concert of nations has meant engaging in fierce economic and technological competition. And to excel in this arena, abundant and inexpensive access to energy—primarily fossil fuels—is crucial. With the well-known climate consequences. It also leads to the development of strong geopolitical dependencies on producing countries (Russia, the Middle East, the United States, etc.), especially if a country does not (or no longer) possess these resources in its own subsoil, as is the case with Europe today.

However, the situation is not hopeless. The solution is clear: we must move away from fossil fuels.

This will simultaneously help limit global climate change and, at the European level, free us from our geopolitical and economic dependencies, increase our sovereignty, and thereby preserve our ability to act.

This necessary shift in direction is within our reach! Truly breaking free from fossil fuels within a few decades rests on three pillars:

• Sobriety, by shifting our lifestyles toward "consuming less but better," with a greater focus on what really matters;
• Effectiveness, by optimizing the use of materials and energy, thereby reducing emissions for the same level of production;
• Decarbonizing the Energy Mix, by gradually replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives.

Although easy to articulate, implementing these strategies actually poses immense economic, technological, societal, geopolitical, and military challenges that must be addressed simultaneously over the next three decades.

Achieving this requires a long-term commitment from all the driving forces of society, based on a clear vision, effective planning, and an explicit and equitable distribution of efforts[3], the conditions necessary to make these changes acceptable.

This effectively structures a vision for society for decades to come, a guarantor of resilience and sovereignty for Europe. And a champion of key values[4] : freedom, democracy, cooperation, peace, equity, and a focus on the commons. This project has several components.

First, from an economic perspective, because the current situation is not favorable, as Europe has fallen behind the United States and China economically and technologically in recent years. In light of these weaknesses, the recent Draghi reports[5] and the Institut Montaigne[6] agree that balancing economic development with decarbonization and phasing out fossil fuels is absolutely essential to preserving the European Union’s future strategic autonomy.

This involves:

• Transforming our lifestyles and consumption patterns toward a more frugal approach;
• Manage supply chains for critical materials;
• Produce sufficient amounts of competitive low-carbon energy;
• Developing technological sovereignty in low-carbon technologies;
• Gradually relocate the industrial production capacity for our essential goods that support simple lifestyles;
• Build a strong investment and financing capacity.

This shift away from fossil fuels will significantly strengthen Europe’s resilience and economic sovereignty by:

• Eliminating our geopolitical dependence on fossil fuel producers;
• Balancing our trade balance;
• Reducing our exposure to volatility in global fossil fuel prices;
• Securing our long-term economic competitiveness and creating stable, meaningful jobs.

On the military front as well. Indeed, breaking free from fossil fuels is a source of sovereignty and resilience for the primary guarantor of our security: our armed forces.

As second-tier military powers, European countries are mired in a dual dependence: on the United States for technology and on fossil-fuel-producing countries for energy. Whether we are barred from using American equipment or our oil supply is cut off, our ability to project force and provide military deterrence collapses very quickly.

But tomorrow, the armed forces will be deployed on “all fronts”—humanitarian, to assist civilian populations affected by increasingly frequent and intense climate-related disasters, and military, amid a context of heightened conflict.

To carry out these missions, we must strengthen our military power immediately—in a sovereign manner (with a focus on European actors)—and resolutely free it from dependence on fossil fuels.

There are various ways to achieve this: technological innovation, electrification, the development of self-sufficient alternative fuel supply chains, and the native integration of the concepts of frugality and flexibility into the design of weapons systems.

This project to take control of our destiny that the release of greenhouse gases is all the more urgent that the Climate change poses significant threats, especially for a Europe, which suffers from significant dependencies.

The climate change is, in fact, a an extremely powerful catalyst for threats.

If climate change is not halted quickly, its effects will be massive: rising sea levels, disruption of the water cycle and precipitation patterns, extreme heat, and more. This would render entire regions uninhabitable and trigger large-scale migration. Military forces will not be spared; their missions (including increased humanitarian aid to populations in the wake of climate-related disasters) and theaters of operations will evolve due to tensions exacerbated by climate change. The battle for Arctic resources (including Greenland at present) is emblematic of this. More extreme weather conditions will also put both personnel and equipment to the test and make the military supply chain more chaotic.

Europe is also in a a situation of extreme dependence.

First and foremost, fossil fuels—and their producers, with the United States now leading the way after dethroning Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine. This dependence leaves the European Union vulnerable to these powers, which can use energy as a tool for geopolitical and economic pressure. Furthermore, through their purchases of gas and oil, European countries continue to finance the war efforts of adversaries, such as Russia in Ukraine (200 billion euros since 2022, representing 25% of Russia’s revenue from fossil fuel sales during that period). All while bearing the economic consequences, with energy prices 4 to 8 times higher than in the United States[7].

Europe is also dependent on producers and processors of critical minerals needed for transition technologies, with China leading the way.

Implementing this plan to break free from fossil fuels requires building a “Powerful Europe.”

Far from being a competitive disadvantage, this project could become a strategic and geopolitical tool for the European Union, provided that it equips itself with the means to make it operational, through a coherent framework : regulations, taxation, protection and support mechanisms, structuring of financing capacity, technology transfer requirements, diplomatic efforts.

However, our renewed determination to take control of our destiny will give rise to rivalries and resistance. Because breaking free from fossil fuels runs up against very powerful economic interests, which will defend themselves fiercely, even if it hastens our collective downfall.

The characteristics of this “Powerful Europe” could then be summarized as 7 points :

1. A Resilient and Sovereign Economy
2. Technological expertise
3. A sovereign and strategically autonomous military power
4. A coherent legal and regulatory framework, compliance with which must be non-negotiable for any entity seeking access to the European market
5. Diplomacy Based on Coalition and Co-Development
6. Effective European Governance
7. The proactive “soft power” of this vision for society

And above all, beyond its “defensive” purpose—to maintain full control over our destiny—this “Europe as a Power” can also be viewed more positively, as a a means to serve a dual purpose :

• Inspire a concrete path toward transition for all other countries, in order to return to within planetary boundaries;
• Working together to build a new system of international relations, laying the foundations for lasting peace without the need for excessive use of fossil fuels to channel violent conflict into widespread economic competition that is voracious for resources[8].

This publication therefore begins by clarifying this vision for a European society. It then seeks to explain why the context of climate change, on the one hand, and Europe’s dependencies, on the other, make its implementation essential. Finally, it examines the means of implementing this vision, proposing the creation of a “Powerhouse Europe,” with this vision as its ultimate goal.