Article
What carbon scenarios are likely for the forestry and wood industry by 2030 and 2050?
March 2024
Carbon sequestration
Prospective
Agri-Food
Carbon sequestration
Prospective
Agri-Food
Made by
Antoine Crépel
Project leader
Article
What carbon scenarios are likely for the forestry and wood industry by 2030 and 2050?
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To develop the carbon scenario for the forestry and wood industry through 2030 and 2050, Carbone 4 worked with the national interprofessional organization France Bois Forêt (FBF), the Professional Committee for the Development of the French Furniture and Wood Industries (CODIFAB), and the French Union of Cardboard, Paper, and Pulp Industries (Copacel).
As part of the preparation of the French Energy and Climate Strategy (SFEC) for ecological planning, the forestry and wood sector modeled all of its physical material flows (including imports and exports as well as recycling and reuse) and used this data to develop a common scenario for the future.
This study, which brought together all segments of the forestry and wood industry, is the first of its kind on such a large scale. It highlights the central role of the forestry and wood industry in addressing climate change, both in terms of adaptation and mitigation.
The sector aims to develop a shared, forward-looking vision of its contribution to achieving carbon neutrality as our forests adapt to climate change.
The study is based on a model of the physical flows throughout the entire value chain, taking into account import-export, recycling, and reuse flows.
It considers only the figures for mainland France, as data for the overseas territories is not available at this time.
This study underscores how the forest and the timber industry—which preserves the forest and depends on it—together form a complex ecosystem that provides numerous benefits to society: it is at once a source of renewable materials and energy, a protector of water resources and soil, a reservoir of biodiversity, a recreational space, a source of locally rooted jobs, a tool for decarbonizing the economy, and more.
The sector’s contribution to carbon sequestration and storage is twofold: through forests, on the one hand, and through wood products, on the other. Both of these levers must be utilized simultaneously to maximize the sector’s contribution to achieving carbon neutrality at the national level.
Forests suffering from the effects of climate change (slowed growth, dieback, pest infestations, mortality, wildfires, etc.), the sector-specific scenario in this study was based on the assumption of a gradual intensification of climate phenomena by 2050 (based on a study by the IGN and the FCBA). It will be essential to actively adapt French forests to climate change in order to reduce the risk of massive carbon release and to preserve the ecosystems’ ability to maintain biodiversity:
France will not achieve its carbon neutrality goals without mobilizing the forestry and wood industry, which is a key asset for simultaneously addressing both climate change mitigation and adaptation.
To achieve carbon neutrality, changes in societal behavior will be necessary; the “moderation” scenario developed in this study also involves changes at every stage of the supply chain to meet societal demand.
Decarbonizing the French economy will inevitably require greater use of wood in various applications. A gradual and measured increase in annual harvest volumes (+10 Mm3 by 2035) will require mobilizing all forests through proportionate revitalization efforts, in line with the goal of adapting them to climate change. This will also require an increase in processing capacity and in the socioeconomic attractiveness of forest management and harvesting activities.
The likely variability in harvest volumes caused by climate-related crises will require adaptation and a reorganization of forest management to make flexible use of crisis timber. The ability to meet demand from various markets will require an even greater focus on allocating timber resources toward lumber and industrial wood products—particularly those with long service lives (construction and furniture)—while expanding the reuse and recycling of end-of-life products. To achieve this, investments in innovation and industrial infrastructure will be necessary.
Effective coordination of the sector’s supply flows will be essential to meet the needs of various markets and maintain balance within the sector. Strict prioritization among wood energy uses will be indispensable to strengthen the competitiveness of wood-processing industries, which are a priority given their contribution to carbon sequestration in wood products. The use of wood energy should therefore be directed primarily toward the sector’s own consumption, leading to a doubling of the volume consumed for this purpose (+7 Mm3) by 2050 compared to 2019.
Finally, with the goal of achieving global carbon neutrality and ensuring energy sovereignty, efforts to shift the sourcing of wood to France will need to be expanded.
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