Aviation: Climate Takeoff Is Imminent—Latecomers Will Be Grounded!

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Climate Awareness in the Aviation Industry

Attitudes in the aviation industry are changing—and they’re changing fast.
Until recently, the industry had remained in denial, by casting itself as the environmentalists’ scapegoat, by simply hammering home its “small” share of total emissions (between 2 and 3%) and pointing out the decline in per-unit fuel consumption with each new generation of aircraft, while failing to point out that traffic growth more than offset these technological gains.
Then the solution emerged in the form of carbon “offsets”, with the implementation of the CORSIA mechanism (a mechanism that is currently voluntary for compensation forthe increase in emissions CO2 emissions from international flights compared to 2019/2020), and the promotion of “carbon-neutral” flights, whose emissions are “offset.” This is an extremely flimsy argument, which has, in fact, been called out by climatologist Valérie Masson-Delmotte ^[1], as explained in one of our previous articles.
The aviation industry is now turning to SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels), alternative fuels produced from biomass, or even synthesized from CO2 and water using carbon-free electricity, as evidenced by recent announcements from a group of 60 industry stakeholders ^[2] and IATA, with its new Net Zero 2050 goal ^[3].

We can commend the sector for this progress in climate maturity over the past few years. Although he wasn’t initially very concerned about climate change, he eventually took up the cause, and is now genuinely committed to decarbonization—a commitment that comes at a cost: SAFs do indeed reduce emissions (unlike “offsets”) and will not be a profitable option for quite some time (SAFs cost at least 2 to 6 times more than fossil kerosene, according to the ICCT ^[4]) unlike fleet renewal, which results in fuel savings.

However, There is still room for improvement in the IATA plan :

• Traffic growth remains a "non-negotiable" assumption. As a result, IATA hopes to double passenger traffic between 2019 (the last year without COVID) and 2050, which would require 450 billion liters of alternative fuels (65% of decarbonization efforts). However, The supply of biomass and carbon-free electricity is limited and will face very strong competition from other uses along with other modes of transportation (road, rail, and maritime), construction, manufacturing, and green chemistry, to name just a few sectors. There will therefore be significant pressure on supply, exacerbated by the need to use biofuels that meet all the (numerous) sustainability criteria, particularly those that do not involve emissions related to land-use change (see our previous article (on this subject).
• The "compensation" mechanism is still widely used, 19% of “decarbonization” efforts, according to IATA, especially in the short term. The way this mechanism is presented is misleading, because carbon “offsets” and the resulting emissions are different quantities and cannot be offset against each other as is currently done (more details in the Net Zero Initiative).

Manufacturers are stepping on the gas—and leaving regulators in the dust!

The aviation industry is therefore still struggling to shake off the ghosts of its past… However, if we focus on the topic of SAFs, we see that announcements are coming in faster and faster. The use of SAF has long been limited to demonstration flights or a few specific flights (e.g., KLM’s Los Angeles–Amsterdam flight), and as such accounts for less than 0.1% of the fuel used. Last July, theThe European Commission has proposed raising climate ambition a notch with the “Fit for 55” Climate Package, including a mandate to incorporate 2% SAF by 2025 and 5% by 2030 ^[5], based on the French roadmap on this subject ^[6]. However, with the recent commitment by 60 industry stakeholders to aim for 10% SAF by 2030, including some major European airlines (British Airways, Iberia, KLM, DHL), The “Fit for 55” package hasn’t even been adopted yet, and it’s already starting to become outdated! Accordingly, the United Kingdom has just announced in its Net Zero Strategy a mandate to blend 10% SAF by 2030 ^[7]. Perhaps France and the EU should raise their ambitions accordingly?

This craze isn't limited to Europe : Among the companies involved in the announcement are the three major U.S. airlines (American Airlines, Delta Airlines, and United Airlines). Their participation is significant and reflects a genuine shift in mindset: Delta recently changed its fleet policy by deciding to undertake a massive fleet renewal, and orders for SAF are pouring in at an ever-increasing scale (e.g., United has committed to purchasing 5.7 billion liters over 20 years ^[8]).
Elsewhere in the world, it is worth noting the recent commitment by the Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific to also use 10% SAF ^[9], and the fact that the three major Brazilian airlines (LATAM, GOL, Azul) are committed to setting Science-Based Targets ^[10].

Conclusion: Adapt quickly… or perish

Air travel is a highly competitive industry where flight prices are highly transparent thanks to flight comparison websites. Until now, the only criteria for choosing a flight were cost and safety (the latter being primarily addressed by regulators such as the FAA and EASA). While The image of air travel is changing, shifting from a high-end mode of transportation and trendy compared to that of the most carbon-intensive mode of transportation (flight shame or "avi-shame"), a third criterion is gradually emerging: flight emissions. In fact, it is already included in some flight comparison sites (EasyVoyages, Skyscanner).

Caught between regulators (European ones, for now) and customers, airlines are taking this issue more and more seriously and are making stronger commitments, with significant investments in fleet renewal and the purchase of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). In the highly competitive environment of this sector, Climate-related factors will increasingly affect the companies' business performance. This is a real risk associated with the climate transition… or an opportunity for those who take proactive steps right now.