Tackling Uncertainty Through the IF Initiative’s Physical Approach to Scenarios

If Initiative

How can you plan for your business and business environment in a world with finite resources and facing planetary boundaries?

Working with a consortium of about twenty companies and six research teams, IF Initiative has developed four scenarios for our economies, as well as an original methodology based on systemic modeling of the major economic sectors on a global scale.

This approach makes it possible to compare sector-specific growth projections with available resources and the resulting pressures on the climate and natural ecosystems.

Issues

Our economies are currently facing a series of simultaneous and interconnected crises: climate change, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruptions are converging in a systemic way. These changes are permanently redefining the operating conditions for businesses by introducing significant and fundamental physical constraints.

In fact, 58% of French executives cite economic unpredictability as their top concern: strategic management reaches an impasse when traditional forecasting tools—which focus on the short term and financial indicators—fail to anticipate these physical constraints or their systemic impacts.

It is therefore necessary to move beyond the illusion of predictability and project one’s business into future scenarios constrained by planetary limits in order to guide strategic decisions and make the right investment choices.

Our Method

The IF Initiative scenarios describe the transformation of economic activities (production and consumption) on a global scale, broken down into 11 macro-regions.

Four categories of determinants are used to explore and characterize possible futures:

Changes in Lifestyles (Consumer Expectations and Preferences)
Geopolitical Contexts and Their Impact on Constraints on Access to Resources and Regional Development
Physical constraints on human societies: various climate targets (GHG budgets) and other planetary boundaries, resource constraints (minerals, fossil fuels, water), inertia in infrastructure transformation, and climate feedbacks on human activities
Improving the efficiency of techniques (energy, materials, environmental impacts)

By calculating the “energy, material, and environmental” footprint of economic activities, these determinants make it possible to identify transformations that are consistent with and compatible with these physical constraints:

of the request
the production system, its output, and the associated technologies used

The IF Initiative scenario-building method thus makes it possible to develop final scenarios that are physically feasible and reflect the material interdependencies of economic activities and the factors that determine their evolution.

Why Choose Us?

Science-Based Scenarios

Our approach to scenario development is based on rigorous biophysical data and the latest research, thereby ensuring robust projections.

A Physical Interpretation of the Economy

Our scenarios place physical reality (energy, resources, infrastructure, greenhouse gas emissions, pressures on biodiversity) at the heart of the analysis. This physical-flow approach allows us to characterize concrete and operational transformation options.

Scenarios developed for and with economic stakeholders

To develop our scenarios, we work closely with a variety of economic stakeholders to establish a common language and devise collective transformation solutions. This collaborative approach allows us to test the resilience of assets and value chains in a way that closely mirrors real-world business conditions.

A systemic perspective

Through a 360° analysis—integrating geopolitics, lifestyles, resources, and planetary boundaries—IF Initiative uncovers critical interdependencies and competition for resources. We thus provide comprehensive insight into the levers for resolution and their implications for each stakeholder.

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